Regulatory cancer risk assessment based on a quick estimate of a benchmark dose derived from the maximum tolerated dose.

The proposed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency carcinogen risk assessment guidelines employ a benchmark dose as a point of departure (POD) for low-dose risk assessment. If information on the carcinogenic mode of action for a chemical supports a nonlinear dose-response curve below the POD, a margin-of-exposure ratio between the POD and anticipated human exposure would be considered. The POD would be divided by uncertainty (safety) factors to arrive at a reference dose that is likely to produce no, or at most negligible, cancer risk for humans. If nonlinearity below the POD is not supported by sufficient evidence, then linear extrapolation from the incidence at the POD to zero would be used for low-dose cancer risk estimation. The carcinogen guidelines suggest that the lower 95% confidence limit on the dose estimated to produce an excess of tumors in 10% of the animals (LTD10) be used for the POD. Due to the relatively narrow range of doses in 2-year rodent bioassays and the limited range of statistically significant tumor incidence rates, the estimate of the LTD10 obtained from 2-year bioassays is constrained to a relatively narrow range of values. Because of this constraint, a simple, quick, and relatively precise determination of the LTD10 can be obtained by the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) divided by 7. All that is needed is a 90-day study to establish the MTD. It is shown that the LTD10 determined by this relatively easy procedure is generally within a factor of 10 of the LTD10 that would be estimated using tumor incidence rates from 2-year bioassays. Estimates of cancer potency from replicated 2-year bioassays, and hence estimates of cancer risk, have been show to vary by a factor of 4 around a median value. Thus, there may be little gain in precision of cancer risk estimates derived from a 2-year bioassay, compared to the estimate based on the MTD from a 90-day study. If the anticipated human exposure were estimated to be small relative to the MTD/7 = LTD10, there may be little value in conducting a chronic 2-year study in rodents because the estimate of cancer risk would be low regardless of the results of a 2-year bioassay. Linear extrapolation to a risk of less than 1 in 100,000 and use of an uncertainty factor, e.g., of 10,000, would give the same regulatory "safe dose." Linear extrapolation to a virtually safe dose associated with a cancer risk estimate of less than one in a million would be 10 times lower than the reference dose based on the LTD10/10,000.